‘Not the same euphoria as last time’: Wartime Russia braces for Trump 

As United States President-elect Donald Trump prepares to re-enter the White House next week, there is uncertainty on both sides of the Ukraine war.

The world is waiting with bated breath to see whether he will maintain the US’s commitment to Kyiv’s defence, or strike some sort of deal with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin.

Trump has repeatedly signalled his willingness to negotiate with Russia, telling a news conference on January 7 that he sympathised with Moscow’s stated concerns about NATO expansion on its western borders.

Certainly, there are those in Russia hopeful Trump can hasten an end to the conflict.

Late last year, lawmaker Vladimir Dzhabarov described him as someone “with whom you can talk”.

However, overall the atmosphere in the Kremlin is more cautious, given Trump’s track record during his previous presidency, during which extra sanctions were imposed on Russia and arms were sent to Ukraine.

“There’s not the same euphoria as there was the last time when Trump won [the election] and champagne glasses were raised,” Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the R.Politik consultancy firm, told Al Jazeera.

“Today, the Kremlin’s attitude is much more sober and prepared for any scenario, both that there will be a new escalation and that Trump will propose some peace deal, although it is not highly expected,” she said, on expectations that the Republican leader will present a solid proposal all parties agree on.

“The intrigue of the whole situation is that Trump, his team, the Kremlin, Kyiv, or Europe – no one knows what will happen.”

In December, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov dismissed reported peace plans proposed by Trump’s team, which included Ukraine giving up parts of its territory currently occupied by Russia, putting Ukraine’s potential NATO bid on hold for 20 years, and deploying European peacekeepers.

Lavrov said Russia was “certainly not satisfied with the proposals made by representatives of the president-elect’s team to postpone Ukraine’s membership in NATO for 20 years and to deploy a peacekeeping contingent of ‘UK and European forces’ in Ukraine”.

Ilya Budraitskis, a Russian historian, social scientist and visiting scholar at the University of California, Berkeley, told Al Jazeera: “The understanding of the essence of this conflict and the basis for negotiations is completely different between Moscow and Washington under Trump.

“Trump considers how to solve the issue related to the border of the Russian Federation with Ukraine. From the Kremlin’s point of view, the issue of this war is completely different, connected with reviewing the current architecture of European security and the question of spheres of influence in the post-Soviet space.”

At the same time, Stanovaya added that Trump’s supporters in the West have “a somewhat exaggerated attitude to what Trump can do”.

“In many ways, the situation depends on what Ukraine itself is ready for,” she continued.

“It will decide the future of the conflict, how quickly the Russian troops will advance, how serious the resistance of the Ukrainians will be, how the situation with the elections will develop and whether there will be elections. These questions probably matter more than what Trump proposes.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s European allies fear what may happen should Russia win, especially with Trump questioning the US’s commitment to NATO.

“Trump has the idea, which he’s voiced many times, that the European allies are manipulating America and are trying to solve their own security issues,” said Budraitskis. But he noted the US has its own, long-term interests in Europe, to which it is unlikely to acquiesce to the Kremlin.

A recent survey from the independent polling agency Levada appeared to show that a majority of Russians are satisfied with how the war in Ukraine, or “special military operation” to use the official lexicon, is going, with more than three-quarters of interviewees supporting continued armed actions in Ukraine.

A growing minority – 39 percent as of November – even believe using nuclear weapons would be acceptable under certain conditions.

More than half of Russians support entering talks to end the conflict.

The kind of anxiety seen in the early days of the war seems to have settled down.

A Levada poll at the end of 2024 showed more than 70 percent believe 2025 will be better than the last year – the most optimistic result in 12 years.

For St Petersburg pensioner Elena, however, there are more immediate concerns.

“In the last few months, the main groceries grew in price one-and-a-half to two times,” she complained.

“Dairy products: milk, cottage cheese – I need very good cottage cheese; eggs, meat, butter. And, of course, these prices won’t go anywhere, or go back down again, because the conditions [in our country] aren’t there.”

Russia’s economy has performed better than many Western-based observers predicted. But experts told Al Jazeera that this was largely driven by spending in the military sector at the expense of other industries.

“The growth of the Russian economy in 2024 compared to 2023 was about 4 percent, which in itself is not bad, but up to two-thirds of this growth was provided by the contribution of the military industry, without improving the lives of most Russians not involved in the military sector,” said economist Olga Savochkina.

“In general, Russian business has managed to adapt and continues to operate under sanctions, although it incurs additional costs. Russia sells oil to China, India; sells other sanctioned goods under the guise of, for example, Kazakh goods to Europe and other countries.”

According to Vladislav Inozemtsev, of the Center for Analysis and Strategies in Europe (CASE), “The only thing that these sanctions and this whole military situation provided for is that it drove the Russian economy into such a distant tunnel.”

“It could be said that in the time of [ex-President] Dmitry Medvedev, everyone was talking about modernisation and so on. Now that’s all completely over … during these years of war and sanctions regime, it seems that the economy is growing, but it’s not developing.”

Inflation in Russia has reached 9 percent this past year, widening the inequality gap.

“Teachers, state employees, minor officials, and of course pensioners, they are losing today because inflation exceeds their income,” Inozemtsev continued.

“Moreover, their consumption is mainly focused on such basic goods, which are the most expensive. Therefore, I think that at least a quarter of the population, or maybe a third, as a result of last year, saw their incomes decrease. But people working in the service industry, small entrepreneurs, the self-employed, they are obviously the winners because their nominal salaries have grown by an average of 17 percent.”

Other problems include the historically low unemployment rate of just 2.3 percent, leaving a shortage in the workforce, and Russia’s dependence on oil – Trump has pledged to ramp up the US oil production, which could eat away Russian profits.

“The Russian economy is still resource-dependent and the budget receives significant revenues from oil sales since Russia was able to circumvent the imposed sanctions with the help of a ‘shadow fleet’,” Savochkina said.

“The predicted increase in oil production in the United States may lead to a decrease in world oil prices to $45-55 per barrel. Let me remind you that the price of oil exports included in the budget for 2025 is $69.7 per barrel. Such a significant decrease in budget revenues will negatively affect the country’s economy.”

On Friday, the outgoing Biden administration imposed yet another round of sanctions, specifically targeting Russia’s oil industry as well as the so-called “shadow fleet” responsible for shipping the produce worldwide.

“The only option I see is that part of the sanctions can only be removed as part of a truce,” Inozemtsev said.

“But you see, I think that the removal of personal sanctions and the possibility of again accepting Russian capital in Europe and the United States could be a serious blow to the economy. This could lead to the outflow of capital and really reduce growth and undermine overall investment. Then it would make sense to sell Russian companies and take the capital to the West. But everyone in the West is convinced that the Russian elites are Putin’s dogs and, accordingly, they need to [be] beaten as cruelly as possible. Therefore, I definitely do not expect this.”

But Oleg Kouzmin, analyst at Moscow-based Renaissance Capital, believes any thaw in US-Russia relations could go a long way.

“It’s hard to imagine all the sanctions getting lifted overnight, but at least a clear understanding that no further sanctions are coming and geopolitical tensions are not getting worse would already reduce the current degree of uncertainty, which would be favourable for [the] economy and markets,” he explained.